Redacted
under FOI exemption 27(1)
SECRET
27
164107 MDLOAM 6072
LUCK THIS MIGHT LEAD TO INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO REACH AGREEMENT WITH US ON OTHER ISSUES, KNOWING THAT WE WOULD EVENTUALLY PREEMPT THEM IF THEY DID NOT.
5. ON THIS BASIS OUR TACTICS WOULD BE DIRECTED A MAXIMISING THE POSSIBILITY OF OBTAINING THIS RESPONSE AND MINIMISING THE RISK OF A WORSE AND MORE DAMAGING REACTION. THE RIGHT COURSE MIGHT BE
TO PROJECT STRONGLY OUR PREFERENCE FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT CON OUR TERMS) AND THE FACT THAT OUR RESORT
TO UNILATERAL ACTION IS ONLY RELUCTANTLY ADOPTED IN THE FACE OF CHINESE INTRANSIGENCE AND UNSHIRKABLE DEADLINES, WE SHOULD EMPHASISE THAT IN SPITE OF THE REGRETTABLE NEED TO ACT UNILATERALLY ON THIS ONE ISSUE, WE REMAIN ANXIOUS TO REACH A *SETTLEMENT OF REMAINING ISSUES.
6. WE SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT (NOT) TO GIVE THE CHINESE ANY GROUNDS TO BELIEVE, AS THEY ARE ALL TOO LIKELY TO DO, THAT OUR ACTION IS SIMPLY A MACHO RESPONSE TO SATISFY HONG KONG OPINION. IF THEY HAVE THAT IMPRESSION THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONCLUDE THAT THERE IS LITTLE POINT IN MAKING CONCESSIONS TO ACHIEVE A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION. IF WE WERE TO ANNOUNCE A DECISION TO GO AHEAD IN OCTOBER, POSSIBLY IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE RESUMPTION OF JLG BUSINESS, THE CHINESE WOULD BE BOUND TO SEE POSTPONEMENT OF JLG XIII AND SUSPENSION OF BUSINESS OVER THE SUMMER AS PART OF A STRATEGY WHICH ALWAYS HAD THAT AIM.
7. FOR THESE REASONS WE BELIEVE IT IS IMPORTANT TO REOPEN DISCUSSION WITH THE CHINESE ON THE DEFENCE LANDS ISSUE AND TO TAKE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO REACH A SETTLEMENT BEFORE WE HAVE TO ANNOUNCE OUR DECISION TO PROCEED. IN THIS CONTEXT WE
SEE ADVANTAGE IN BEING ABLE TO PUT OFF ANY ANNOUNCEMENT UNTIL ÁT LEAST THE END OF THE YEAR. THIS WOULD ALLOW TWO JLG MEETINGS (XIII AND XIV) FOR US TO WORK ON THE CHINESE AND INFORMAL CONTACTS WITH KE AND OTHERS IN THE INTERIM TO ACCUSTOM THEM TO THE INEVITABILITY OF A DECISION TO PROCEED.
IS THERE ANY WAY THAT THE TIMETABLE IN HONG KONG TELNO 2476 COULD BE IMAGINATIVELY REVISED TO ALLOW THIS? FAILING THAT, WOULD IT
BE POSSIBLE TO LIMIT THE TERMS OF ANY ANNOUNCEMENT BEFORE THEN TO WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY AGREED WITH THE CHINESE : THAT THE RECLAMATION WILL GO AHEAD AND THAT THEREFORE THE NAVAL BASIN WILL NEED TO BE FILLED IN?
8. BEFORE WE RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WE WILL NEED TO THINK CAREFULLY ABOUT HOW TO PICK UP THE THREADS.