CONFIDENTIAL
148
Singapore's zeal in general, however, is worth noting.
While
Singapore may be more bullish than Malaysia in some of her plans for FPDA (and we must bear Malaysia's intentions and interests in mind and avoid the impression that we are fine-tuning arrangements solely with Singapore), Mr Beazley's reaction bears out the central
conclusion of the SEAD paper (para 10) that British withdrawal from
the FPDA would seriously damage the FPDA and our own standing in the
region.
/R175
Miss Marsden Mr Folyme 515
wuls
PA
PS/Lord Glenarthur
HKC 062
SMAY 1989
FUTURE OF THE FIVE POWER DEFENCE ARRANGEMENTS
D H Colvin
South East Asian Dept
1. During his trip to South East Asia in April 1988 the Secretary of State heard from the horse's mouth that the Malaysians and Singaporeans continue to attach importance to UK participation in the FPDA. The soundings taken of the Australians and New Zealanders at Lord Glenarthur's request have yielded similarly positive results. The attitude of both the regional and the external partners tends, in short, to confirm the paper's analysis that in the short to medium-term (3-5 years) at least the benefits of membership to the UK outweigh the disadvantages. I therefore agree that Lord Glenarthur should commend the paper to the Secretary of State.
2.
Having said that, I think it will be right to keep our participation in the FPDA under review. I would expect the balance of advantage to shift once the last British forces have withdrawn from Hong Kong in 1997. There will then no longer be any Hong Kong-related rationale for maintaining a Gurkha batallion. in Brunei. It is possible that keeping the Sultan happy and giving substance to our FPDA commitment will then be seen as sufficient reasons for keeping the Brunei batallion. But that is by no means certain. It is true that our forces in Hong Kong and in Brunei are in no way earmarked to the fulfilment of FPDA commitments at present, even in the last resort. But it might ·
look odd to maintain even a commitment to consult if we had no forces stationed within 8,000 miles.
4 May 1989
cc as above
JDAAHA
RJT McLaren