SECRET UK EYES A
LOCSEN
has been commissioned by MOD Central Staffs, with
recommendations for the provision of a credible military force to be presented by mid-1989. Inputs will be required from HMG, HKG, MODUK, HQBF Hong Kong as well as other agencies. (HQ BF Hong Kong have undertaken to draft, in conjunction with CAPIC, a role and an outline of the requirement for the future RN presence; this will be forwarded following endorsement by the HKG Security Branch.)
The abbreviated timescale has been imposed so that findings
are available at least 18 months ahead of the earliest
notional withdrawal of the third PC; this should permit notification of any pertinent decisions to the PRCG
Redacted under FOI exemption section 27(1)
37. Factors. It will be necessary to ascertain via
analysis of a range of options, an appropriate and credible level of operational capability in order to provide the
-
basis for proper deliberation and the subsequent development' of the maritime requirement. Factors to be taken into account are: the threat (which is assessed not to have
changed); the requirement; the capability and likely effectiveness of MARPOL; funding arrangements involving HKG; the naval support facilities expected to be available; and the capacity of the preferred solution to withstand Chinese scrutiny.
38. Objective. The study is to define the type(s) and number of vessels and associated equipment required to provide the minimum credible naval force, which could fulfil a possible political commitment to retain a naval presence afloat most cost-effectively, and to identify the respective manpower, establishments and supporting facilities required by each option considered in the process of the review.
COS49.6-17
25 LOCSEN
UK EYES A
SECRET