SECRET UK EYES A
LOCSEN
loyalty of those dealing with the PRCG, who may be tempted to insure their position by adopting a low profile in areas with contact or potential conflict with the Chinese. In the event of loss of confidence in Hong Kong, or major civil disturbances, the loyalty and reliability of Locally Employed Personnel (LEPS)/Locally Employed Civilians (LECS) could be affected, possibly resulting in resignations, desertions, absenteeism or lack of co-operation. This
latter dimension could have a knock-on effect and inhibit
reductions in Force levels or cause their reinstatement.
-
13. Chinese Intervention. There are thus a variety of factors which could lead to domestic unrest and violence in
Hong Kong in the pattern of previous disturbances. These factors are difficult to predict. In addition, if civil disturbances spread and intensify beyond a manageable level, there is a possibility that the PRCG may act in accordance with their perceived right to restore stability should they judge HMG/HKG to lack either the capability or the will to do so.
14.
DIS 1991 Study. In view of the above, the DIS should be tasked to produce an intelligence assessment detailing the factors likely to contribute to the outbreak of violence and what, if any, additional collection and assessment capability will be required to monitor the threat in order to achieve timely warning. The study should be completed by 1 July 1991 in time to be considered by the authors of the major 1991 review of the Garrison withdrawal plan discussed at paragraphs 42 and 43. This study should be linked to the overall intelligence study to be led by DGMSI and currently
COS49.6-17
8
LOCSEN UK EYES A
SECRET