MAJOR REVIEW - TIMESCALE
SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN
42. A major wide-ranging review of CDS 7/87 is currently scheduled to take
place in 1992. This timescale was originally selected because it falls 5 years
before the final withdrawal; it was recognised that 1991 would see the for-
mulation of crucial decisions relating to commercial re-investment in Hong Kong
- with implications for the security and stability of the Territory. Under
current arrangements the next biennial review of CDS 7/87 will be completed in
Feb 91, with the major review requested by the HKG being conducted by an unspe-
cified date the following year. However, this paper proposes that the first
battalion should cease operational service in mid 1992 and withdraw from Hong
Kong in the third quarter. This will be a crucial event and it is considered
advisable that the withdrawal decision, if announced in 1989, should be sche-
duled for final albeit entirely discreet
-
-
confirmatory clearance by the COS
by the end of 1991. With this objective in mind, it is proposed that the next
biennial review and the major review should be combined and conducted during the
second half of 1991. The review is likely to be complex, but it is considered
that by early Oct 1991 it will be possible to judge whether the Hong Kong Police
will be able to assume effective control of half of the border by the end of
that year. There should also be sufficient indication during 1991 of the
approach being adopted towards Hong Kong by financial investors. It is there-
fore suggested that the first draft of the major review, taking due account of
the threat study to be prepared by DIS, should be issued in early Oct 1991 -
with final clearance by the COS in committee before Christmas. This would per-
mit Ministerial confirmation of the Withdrawal Decision to be announced, if
necessary, some six months ahead of the actual withdrawal of the first bat-
talion.
ROW 113 (HONG)
26
SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN