CONFIDENTIAL
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MDHOAN 0051
5.
THE POSITION MAY HOWEVER NOT BE AS CUT AND DRIED AS THAT. IF THE TOTAL COMMITMENTS ON THE TABLE AT THE CONFERENCE FAILED TO
BE COVER ALL 53,000 REFUGEES, MORE MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE WOULD THE OPTION OF EXTENDING THE 3 YEAR RESETTLEMENT PERIOD. ALTERNATIVELY, SOME COUNTRIES MIGHT BE CALLED UPON TO MAKE A SPECIAL EFFORT. GIVEN OUR PARTICULAR RESPONSIBILITY FOR HONG KONG, OTHERS MIGHT WELL LOOK TO US. I ALSO NOTE FROM THE PRESS ROUND UP (HONG KONG TELNO 1303) THAT HUI YIN FAT TOLD THE FAC THAT THE UK SHOULD TAKE 3,000 REFUGEES. I AM NOT SURE HOW REPRESENTATIVE
OR SIGNIFICANT THAT VIEW IS.
6. YOU ASKED FOR AN ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS OF SECURING MINISTERIAL AGREEMENT TO A FURTHER UK COMMITMENT. MINISTERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO RELISH THE PROSPECT OF A NEW OR EXTENDED RESETTLEMENT COMMITMENT AND I THINK WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE VERY REALISTIC ABOUT WHAT THEY WILL BE PREPARED TO AGREE TO. MINISTERS MIGHT FIND 1,000 MORE PLACES OVER THREE YEARS DIFFICULT TO SWALLOW (IT WOULD OF COURSE REQUIRE A FURTHER INCREASE IN OUR MONTHLY INTAKE). A FIGURE OF 500 COULD BE ACHIEVED BY EXTENDING OUR PRESENT RATE OF INTAKE FOR A FURTHER YEAR. I AM HOWEVER INCLINED TO RECOMMEND THAT A FURTHER 1,000 PLACES BE OFFERED, COUPLED WITH ADVICE THAT THERE MAY WELL HAVE TO BE SOME LAST MINUTE HORSETRADING AT THE CONFERENCE AND RAPID ON THE SPOT DECISIONS. I HAVE HAD AN INFORMAL WORD WITH THE HOME OFFICE. THEY WERE SYMPATHETIC BUT NON COMMITTAL.
7. I SHALL BE SUBMITTING SOME PRELIMINARY IDEAS TO MINISTERS BEFORE THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD THEREFORE BE GRATEFUL FOR YOUR REACTION TO THE ABOVE, DESKBY 28093OZ.
HOWE
YYYY
ΜΑΙΝ
LIMITED
HKD
SEAD
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23
DISTRIBUTION
23
MR GILLMORE
MR MCLAREN
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CONFIDENTIAL