CONFIDENTIAL
FM FCO
TO DESKBY 28010OZ HONG KONG
TELNO 911
OF 271715Z APRIL 89
CONFIDENTIAL
HKB 243/28
6
020024
MDHOAN 0051
PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR FROM PAUL, HKD
5
YOUR TELNO 1318: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE:
1.
RESETTLEMENT
WE HAVE BEEN GIVING MUCH THOUGHT TO THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE RESETTLEMENT COMMITMENT WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO COME UP WITH AT THE GENEVA CONFERENCE IN ORDER BOTH TO SATISFY OTHER PARTICIPANTS THAT WE ARE PLAYING OUR FAIR PART AND TO CARRY CONVICTION IN HONG
KONG.
2.
IT IS EVIDENT FROM UKMIS GENEVA TELNO 206 THAT THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA ARE READY TO MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION AND I UNDERSTAND FROM INFORMAL INDICATIONS IN THE MARGINS OF THE GENEVA SUB COMMITTEE THAT THE AUSTRALIANS MAY ALSO BE WILLING TO TAKE SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS. BUT IT IS EQUALLY CLEAR THAT THE MAJOR RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES WILL BE LOOKING TO US TO CONTRIBUTE COMMENSURATELY.
3. IN ATTEMPTING TO ASSESS WHAT A COMMENSURATE CONTRIBUTION WOULD BE, WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE PROBLEM FROM VARIOUS ANGLES:
(A) THE UK'S TOTAL HISTORICAL OFFTAKE FROM HONG KONG AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF REFUGEES RESETTLED FROM THE TERRITORY: 13,264 OUT OF A TOTAL OF ABOUT 112,300 (11.8 PER CENT). ON THAT BASIS WE SHOULD TAKE ABOUT 1,750 OF THE REMAINING 14,750 REFUGEES (OR 1,860 IF ONE ASSUMES THAT ABOUT 1,000 MORE WILL BE SCREENED IN).
(B) THE UK'S TOTAL OFFTAKE SINCE 1975 OF REFUGEES FROM THE REGION AS A WHOLE AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL NUMBERS RESETTLED:
16,729 OUT OF 628,268 (2.7 PER CENT). THAT WOULD SUGGEST A COMMITMENT OF 1,400 PLACES.
(C) AT THE 1979 GENEVA CONFERENCE WE MADE A COMMITMENT TO TAKE 10,000 REFUGEES, OUT OF A TOTAL COMMITMENT MADE AT THE CONFERENCE TO TAKE ABOUT 260,000 (3.8 PER CENT). PRO RATA, THAT WOULD MEAN A COMMITMENT OF 2,000 OUT OF 53,000.
4.
FROM A PURELY MATHEMATICAL POINT OF VIEW, THEREFORE, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A COMMENSURATE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE UK WOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF 1,500-2,000 PLACES. WE ARE ASSUMING THAT THE COMMITMENT OF 1,000 CONFIRMED AFTER YOUR MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER WOULD COUNT TOWARDS THIS.
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