CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 4206
OF 21120OZ DECEMBER 89
CONFIDENTIAL
HKB
24319
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
04 JAN 1990
REGISTRY
DESK ICER
INDEX
RA
Action Taken
770
INFO IMMEDIATE HANOI, UKMIS GENEVA
SIS
516.
536
142643 MDHIAN 0236
OUR TELNOS 4133 AND 4134 : VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: STRATEGY FOR
1990
IN TURS WE HAVE SET OUT OUR GENERAL STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH NEW ARRIVALS NEXT YEAR AND OUR PROPOSALS FOR THE REPATRIATION PROGRAMME DURING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY. THE MAIN CONSTRAINT ON BOTH COUNTS WILL BE THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE VIETNAMESE WILL BE PREPARED TO CO- OPERATE IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LARGE SCALE REPATRIATION PROGRAMME. WITHOUT SUCH CO-OPERATION THE RAPID SCREENING OF NEW ARRIVALS WILL BE OF LITTLE VALUE. INDEED, UNLESS WE GET SUCH CO- OPERATION WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN THE FIVE MORE GROUPS OF NON-REFUGEES WE ARE PLANNING ON BEFORE THE END OF FEBRUARY. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN THERE ARE OBVIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE LIKELY INFLUX IN 1990 AND REACTIONS TO IT HERE.
2. YOU AND HANOI ARE BEST PLACED TO EVALUATE VIETNAMESE INTENTIONS. OUR CURRENT ASSESSMENT IN THE LIGHT OF VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT COMMENTS POST-12 DECEMBER IS THAT WE WILL FACE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTIES IN ACHIEVING OUR OBJECTIVES ON A BILATERAL BASIS. THE VIETNAMESE ARE, WE JUDGE, ONLY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS LARGE SCALE REPATRIATION UNDER CONCERTED PRESSURE WITHIN THE STEERING COMMITTEE. WE HAVE THEREFORE BEEN GIVING SOME THOUGHT TO OUR OBJECTIVES AT THE RESUMED SC3.
3. IN GENERAL TERMS WE SEE OUR MAIN OBJECTIVE AS BEING TO MOVE INTERNATIONAL OPINION TOWARDS AN ACCEPTANCE OF THE FULL IMPLICATIONS OF THE CPA, I.E. INCLUDING THE RETURN OF NON-REFUGEES. WE HAVE TO GET THE MESSAGE ACROSS AT SC3 THAT WITHOUT A GENERAL ACCEPTANCE OF THE MANDATORY REPATRIATION PROGRAMME, AND OUR OWN PROGRAMME IN PARTICULAR, THE CPA MECHANISMS WILL PROVE TO BE ENTIRELY INADEQUATE IN THE FACE OF A FURTHER MAJOR INFLUX NEXT SUMMER. THIS WOULD PUT FIRST ASYLUM UNDER INTOLERABLE POLITICAL PRESSURE HERE: WE WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO SUSPEND/TERMINATE IT AS SOON AS A NEW INFLUX FOR 1990 WAS CLEARLY UNDER WAY. THERE IS THEREFORE A REAL DANGER THAT THE CPA WILL COLLAPSE UNLESS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS PREPARED TO SUPPORT THE FULL AND
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CONFIDENTIAL