SECRET
151460
MDHIA 0652
THE CLOSED BORDER AREA, THUS REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESS STAKING IT OUT, AND ENCOURAGING PROTEST, AS HAPPENED AT PHOENIX HOUSE. ONE DISADVANTAGE IS THAT SAN UK LING IS A LONG WAY FROM THE AIRPORT. TO AVOID TRAFFIC DIFFICULTIES AN EARLY MORNING MOVE TO THE
AIRPORT WILL AGAIN BE NECESSARY.
6. PARA 6 OF TUR REFERRED TO MINISTERS' WISH TO SPEED UP VOLUNTARY
REPATRIATION. WE SHARE THIS WISH. THE MAIN CONSTRAINT ON THE
VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION PROGRAMME AT PRESENT IS RECEPTION CAPACITY
IN VIETNAM. UNTIL THE VIETNAMESE ARE WILLING AND ABLE TO ACCEPT MORE FREQUENT FLIGHTS AND/OR LARGER AIRCRAFT, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANYTHING WE ARE ABLE TO DO AT THIS END WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
SPEED UP THE VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION PROGRAMME.
7. THERE ARE AT PRESENT ABOUT 1200 VOLUNTEERS IN HONG KONG. 350
HAVE BEEN CLEARED FOR RETURN BY THE VIETNAMESE. EACH TIME A
VIETNAMESE TEAM COMES TO HONG KONG IT BRINGS A LIST OF ABOUT 300 NAMES FOR CLEARANCE. AFTER WITHDRAWALS, THIS REDUCES TO ABOUT 250 INTERVIEWED ON EACH OCCASION. BASED ON RECENT RATES OF NEW VOLUNTARY APPLICATIONS (LESS WITHDRAWALS), UNHCR SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A REPATRIATION PROGRAMME OF 400 PER MONTH. THAT NUMBER
COULD BE CLEARED IN A TYPICAL WEEK'S VISIT BY THE VIETNAMESE IMMIGRATION TEAM, IF THEY WERE WILLING TO INTERVIEW OTHERS APART FROM THOSE ON THE LIST THEY BRING WITH THEM. UNHCR HAS REPEATEDLY ASKED THEM TO DO THIS, BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN PREPARED TO SHOW ANY FLEXIBILITY DURING RECENT VISITS.
8. WE DO NOT THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT A PERMANENT VIETNAM PRESENCE
HERE IS NECESSARY IN PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES. WE CERTAINLY DO NOT EXCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY, IF IT WERE PART OF A PACKAGE WHEREBY THE VIETNAMESE AGREED BOTH TO ACCELERATE VOLUNTARY PROGRAMME, AND TO CO-OPERATE WITH US ON THE LARGE SCALE RETURN BY SHIP OF THOSE SCREENED OUT. BUT WE SEE THIS AS A CARD WHICH NEED TO BE PLAYED AT THE RIGHT TIME AND WITH AN ADEQUATE RETURN. WE MUST EXPECT THE CHINESE TO BE NERVOUS ABOUT WHAT WOULD AMOUNT TO A PERMANENT VIETNAMESE CONSULAR PRESENCE HERE. ANY LIKELY OBJECTIONS WOULD BE MANAGEABLE: BUT THEY WOULD BE MORE EASILY MANAGED IF WE COULD JUSTIFY SUCH A MOVE ON THE BASIS OF A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE VIETNAMESE POSITION ON REPATRIATION. IN OTHER WORDS WE BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD SEEK TO EXACT THE MAXIMUM PRICE THAT WE REASONABLY CAN IN RETURN
FOR ANY SUCH CONCESSION ON OUR PART.
WILSON