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010402 MDHIAN 4955
AFFECT THE TIMING OF OUR DECISION:
(I) THE CONGRESSIONAL
TIMETABLE, AND (II) THE BUSH/GORBACHEV MEETING. CONGRESS IS TRYING TO COMPLETE ITS LEGISLATIVE PROGRAMME IN ORDER TO GO INTO RECESS BY THANKSGIVING DAY (23 NOVEMBER). IF THEY ARE UNABLE TO MEET THIS DEADLINE, THE CHANCES ARE THAT THE SESSION WILL DRAG ON WELL INTO DECEMBER. TIMING THE ANNOUNCEMENT TO COINCIDE WITH THE MALTA MEETING MIGHT HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, BUT THE EFFECT WOULD BE TRANSIENT. THERE WHOULD IN ANY CASE BE WIDESPREAD COMMENT WITHIN A FEW DAYS, PERHAPS MADE WORSE BY
ACCUSATIONS OF DEVIOUSNESS ON OUR PART. THIS WOULD BE MORE MANAGEABLE IF THERE WERE SOME VIETNAM FOR CHOOSING THE SAME
6.
SPECIFIC REASON IN HONG KONG OR
DATES AS THE BUSH/GORBACHEV MEETING.
WE HAVE ALREADY DONE MUCH TO EXPLAIN OUR POLICY ON THE HILL AND TO THE MEDIA. ON THE HILL, REACTIONS HAVE BEEN MIXED: SOME CONGRESSMEN CERTAINLY UNDERSTAND AND SYMPATHISE WITH OUR POSITION. BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STAND UP TO SIGNIFICANT
PROTESTS IF CONGRESSIONAL TEMPERATURES RUN HIGH. THE KEY WILL BE TO ENSURE THAT OUR SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT IS PUT ACROSS AS EFFECTIVELY
AND AS RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE TWO OPTIONS:
(I)
TO LET THE NEWS BREAK, AWAIT MEDIA REACTION AND REACT ACCORDINGLY: OR
(II) TO TRY TO PREEMPT COMMENT BY REITERATING OUR ARGUMENTS TO
KEY OPINION FORMERS ON THE HILL AND IN THE MEDIA AT THE SAME
TIME AS OUR DECISION IS ANNOUNCED.
SINCE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO TRY TO INFLUENCE EARLY COMMENT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, WE FAVOUR OPTION
(II).
7 I THINK THAT I SHOULD THEREFORE WRITE TO KEY CONGRESSMEN OUTLINING THE BACKGROUND TO OUR DECISION, TIMING MY
LETTER TO ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS THE DECISION IS ANNOUNCED. THE ADDRESSEES WOULD INCLUDE THOSE WITH SIZEABLE VIETNAMESE
CONSTITUENCIES. ALTHOUGH CONGRESS WILL WITH LUCK BE IN RECESS BETWEEN 23 NOVEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY, THERE WILL REMAIN ADVANTAGE
IN GETTING OUR POINT OF VIEW ON THE RECORD WITH CONGRESSMEN BECAUSE
THEIR VIEWS WILL STILL BE SOUGHT BY THE MEDIA, AND BECAUSE IT WOULD GIVE THEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE PROPER ACCOUNT OF OUR
POSITION BEFORE CONGRESS RESUMES. THE WAY IN WHICH THE PUBLIC
DEBATE DEVELOPS DURING DECEMBER WILL IN TURN DETERMINE THE EXTENT
TO WHICH CONGRESS PURSUES THE ISSUE IN JANUARY.
8 =
AS TO THE MEDIA, WE PROPOSE TO WRITE TO ALL THE HEAVYWEIGHT COMMENTATORS MAKING ESSENTIALLY THE SAME POINTS AS IN MY LETTER
TO CONGRESSMEN (ENCLOSING THE TEXT OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT AND MAKING
SOME ADDITIONAL BULL POINTS. DRAFT POINTS ARE IN MY SECOND
IFT.) SUBORDINATE POSTS WILL DO LIKEWISE WITH THEIR KEY MEDIA
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