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CONFIDENTIAL
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From: A R Brenton
United Nations Dept
Date: 7 September 1989
CC:
PS
PS/Lord Brabazon PS/Mr Maude
Mr Gillmore
Mr McLaren
Mr Colvin, SEAD Mr Haswell, HKD
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1 This subject has already produced too much paper but I'm afraid I must comment on Mr Haswell's minute of 6 September.
2. Mr Haswell admits that at present we have a total of 727 confirmed volunteers against just 591 definitively screened out. fears that the Americans and others will use these statistics to refute our contentions that the voluntary programme is not working effectively. He then proceeds to argue (in effect) that however well the voluntary programme may be working we must proceed to a programme of mandatory repatriation.
He
3. Surely all of this is the wrong way round. We seem to have talked ourselves into a frame of mind where we are automatically assuming that the voluntary programme has failed. I am not yet convinced that this is the case. We have only just reached the point where we have enough definitively screened out for the voluntary approach to be really under test. Only the next few weeks can show whether (as the statistics currently seem to suggest) enough will come forward from the definitively screened out to offer real hope of a reduction in the physical and political pressure in Hong Kong. If they do then, as I have said before, I see no case for our introducing mandatory repatriation as well. The political and presentational disadvantages of mandatory repatriation do not need me to describe them again. The CPA clearly presents the mandatory route as an alternative for use only if the voluntary route fails. And the 'deterrence' argument for mandatory repatriation seems to me to be nonsense. The camps are already a deterrent.
4. One other point, we seem to be making heavy use of the argument that if we introduce mandatory repatriation the Thais and the Malays will not immediately be able to follow because we were so far ahead of them in introducing screening. I find this unpersuasive. VBPS
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CONFIDENTIAL