D,E
4 The success of SC3 was not a prerequisite for starting non-voluntary repatriation. But the Hong Kong Government were unable to assemble a group of more than 14 acquiescents for the first flight. (They believed that they would encounter resistance in moving more people to Phoenix House where they have been assembling a group for repatriation, and that there was a serious risk of wider disturbances). Ministers took the view that it would not be worth proceeding with a flight for only 14, and, given the need to clear names with the Vietnamese in advance, the 31 October target date was abandoned. A later date before the visit of the Prince and Princess of Wales would have been unacceptably close to TRH's visit while a date during the visit itself was never a serious option. Hong Kong have now been instructed to move more screened-out boat people to Phoenix House so that a date following TRH visit can be selected in the light of all the circumstances.
Timing
5 The alternatives are therefore:
a)
Before the Prime Minister's visit to the United States (23-24 November)
(I
We could select a date in the period 12 - 23 November. discount a target date during the Prime Minister's visit: that would be regarded as gratuitously provocative). danger is that if the first return went wrong, it might mar Mrs Thatcher's visit. Indeed, this could be the result even if the first repatriation goes smoothly. Against that there might be advantage in carrying the fight to the Americans and tackling them head on. The decision must ultimately be one for the Prime Minister herself but on balance, I advise against this course;
b) After the Prime Minister's visit but before SC3
(resumed)
If,
on
This would enable the Prime Minister, if she chose, to make the final attempt to persuade President Bush to accept the need to return non-volunteers or at any rate not to oppose publicly, before the first repatriation takes place. If SC3 (resumed) takes place on 23/24 November, any target date after the Prime Minister's visit will be after it. the other hand, the SC3 meeting is held on 4/5 December, it would leave one week for the operation (27 November - 3 December). Having delayed five months, I do not think that a further postponement of one week would greatly matter, considering the propaganda and other advantages;
CA4ANT
CONFIDENTIAL