CONFIDENTIAL
256
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HANOI
TELNO 459
TO PRIORITY FCO
OF 11040OZ SEPTEMBER 89
НКВ
24319
122075 MDLIAN 9306
TOP COPY Q DIST ?
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG WASHINGTON UKMIS GENEVA
HONG KONG TELNO 2957 TO YOU: REPATRIATION OF VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE
1
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SEVENTH PLENUM ARE STILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR, BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET THAT THEY WILL AFFECT VIETNAMESE THINKING ABOUT THE REPATRIATION OF BOAT PEOPLE ISSUE.
2.
I MUST THEREFORE RE-EMPHASISE THE POINTS MADE BY MR PARTRIDGE IN HANOI TELNOS 78 TO HONG KONG AND 444 TO YOU. DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS HERE ON 26 JUNE, THE VIETNAMESE SIDE MADE IT QUITE CLEAR THAT THEY WERE NOT PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE USE OF FORCE IN THE RETURN OF ACQUIESCENTS. I HAVE NO REASON FOR THINKING THAT THEIR VIEW HAS CHANGED SINCE THEN.
3. IT IS EVIDENT FROM HONG KONG TUR THAT WE ARE CONTEMPLATING THE USE OF FORCE, ALBEIT A ''MINIMUM DEGREE''. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE ARE FACED WITH TWO CHOICES. EITHER WE PROCEED WITH THE FIRST BATCH AND HOPE THAT THE VIETNAMESE DO NOT IN THE EVENT REFUSE TO ACCEPT THEM. OR WE COME CLEAN WITH THE VIETNAMESE, IN ADVANCE OF THE RETURN OF THE FIRST BATCH, AND RUN THE RISK OF FINDING OURSELVES BACK AT SQUARE ONE, AS MR PARTRIDGE HAS INDICATED.
4.
GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW OF THE VIETNAMESE ATTITUDE TO THE ISSUE, THINK IT WOULD BE IMPRUDENT TO ADOPT THE FIRST OF THE CHOICES, PARTICULARLY IF THE CONCEPT OF MINIMUM FORCE COULD ENTAIL THE USE OF POLICEMEN ON A ONE TO ONE BASIS ON THE AIRCRAFT. WE COULD END
UP WITH AN UNSEEMLY FIASCO AT HANOI AIRPORT WHICH COULD TERMINATE ANY HOPE OF A CONTINUING PROGRAMME AND POSSIBLY HAVE NEGATIVE
AFFECTS ON THE VOLUNTARY PROGRAMME.
5.
THE ALTERNATIVE IS ALSO UNATTRACTIVE, SINCE IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY MEAN THAT NO NON-VOLUNTARY RETURNS WOULD TAKE PLACE FOR SEVERAL MONTHS AT LEAST. HOWEVER, IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHETHER THERE HAS BEEN ANY VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAMESE THINKING. IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IN THE CONTEXT OF THE VISIT (9-13 SEPTEMBER) OF LORD ENNALS AND MR ALF DUBS, I WOULD HOPE TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PROBE DISCREETLY.
1
PAGE
CONFIDENTIAL
I