CONFIDENTIAL
155565
MDADAN 63
LIKELY PRE-CONDITIONS ARE THE ENDING OF FIRST ASYLUM BY HONG KONG, AND THE MEETING OF ALL COSTS INCURRED BY THE CHINESE IN REPATRIATION OVERLAND. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE WITH ECVIIS, THE CHINESE ARE LIKELY TO RESIST A COMMITMENT TO TRANSPORT PEOPLE BY LAND ALL THE WAY FROM THE HONG KONG BORDER TO THE VIETNAMESE BORDER. TRANSPORT BY SEA OR AIR TO A POINT IN CHINA NEAR THE SINO-VIETNAMESE LAND BORDER AND THEN OVERLAND THE REST OF THE WAY ARE POSSIBILITIES. BUT THESE WOULD SEEM TO HAVE FEW ADVANTAGES OVER TRANSPORT BY SEA OR AIR DIRECT TO VIETNAM.
REPATRIATION OVERLAND
3. THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES CLAIM TO HAVE SENT PEOPLE BACK TO VIETNAM ACROSS THE LAND BORDER. ONE STATEMENT MENTIONED 5,000 PEOPLE. THIS IS PROBABLY EXAGGERATED, BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THAT SOME PEOPLE HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPATRIATED FROM CHINA TO VIETNAM IN THIS WAY. ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE WITH CHINESE CO-OPERATION TO EFFECT AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF MANDATORY REPATRIATION WITHOUT CONCLUDING A FORMAL AGREEMENT WITH VIETNAM, IN PRACTICE A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF REPATRIATION ACROSS THE LAND BORDER COULD ONLY BE ACHIEVED WITH BOTH CHINESE AND VIETNAMESE CO-OPERATION.
4. THE SIMPLEST ARRANGEMENT FROM THE HKG PERSPECTIVE WOULD BE TO DELIVER THE VBP IN GROUPS OF PERHAPS 400 INTO THE CARE OF THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES AT LO WU. BUT SMALLER GROUPS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, MAY BE NECESSARY. IF THE CHINESE ARE TO BE PERSUADED TO ASSIST BY TRANSPORTING VBP FROM THEIR BORDER WITH HONG KONG TO THE BORDER WITH VIETNAM (450KM) IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO OFFER A CONSIDERABLE FINANCIAL INCENTIVE TO THE PROVINCIAL AUTHORITIES IN GUANGDONG AND GUANGXI BESIDES MEETING ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS. IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO TRANSPORT THE VBP MOST OF THE WAY BY AIR, SEA OR RAIL BUT SOME ELEMENT OF ROAD TRANSPORT WILL BE NECESSARY WITHIN CHINA.
5. IF THIS ARRANGEMENT IS FORMALISED WITH THE PRC AND SRV, IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR HONG KONG IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS TO TRAVEL WITH THE VBP TO EFFECT THE HANDOVER TO THE VIETNAMESE ON THE BORDER. OF COURSE, IF WE WERE SIMPLY AIMING TO SEND SMALL GROUPS BACK ACROSS THE BORDER WITHOUT ANY FORMAL ARRANGEMENT WITH THE VIETNAMESE IT WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY TO SEND IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS WITH THE VBP. HOWEVER, WE THINK THAT A LAND BORDER SCHEME IS UNLIKELY TO BE OF GREAT VALUE UNLESS IT CAN BE DEVELOPED INTO A REGULAR AND LARGE SCALE CHANNEL. THIS MEANS THAT THE CO-OPERATION OF THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT WILL BE ESSENTIAL.
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CONFIDENTIAL