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THE DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN HONG KONG
support of a more democratic system of government. The movement has been given a golden opportunity to occupy the middle ground of the political spectrum and appeal to other groups to join it. In this time of uncertainty and insecurity a vast majority of the population will be looking for direction and guidance, and the movement has to satisfy this demand.
While it is generally expected that some form of international guarantee for the Hong Kong people's rights and freedoms beyond 1997 will be desirable or even necessary, a representative political party with a broad base will be the only organ to effectively articulate the community's interests. Now that the world is ready to listen, such a political party will be given the opportunity to acquire a credible international
status.
The difficulties ahead will be formidable, however, once the initial emotional reactions begin to cool down. With an accelerating exodus of the middle class, the democracy movement or its political party will find it difficult to sustain its appeal, especially to the talented middle-class professionals, whose time and resources need to be secured for the cause of democracy in Hong Kong. If the hardline leaders who were responsible for the military crackdown on the Beijing students manage to stay in power (the initial indicators are that this will be so), then it will be
difficult to overcome people's sense of political impotence.
very
Under such circumstances, the question of whether or not to engage in a dialogue with the Chinese officials in charge of Hong Kong affairs will be a divisive issue. Almost inevitably some groups will like to maintain open lines of communication, while others will continue their boycott. The conservative business community will again articulate its line of wishing to avoid antagonizing the Chinese regime, saying that 'one country, two systems' requires non-interference in Chinese domestic affairs. To the conservatives, non-interference will include giving up support for the democracy movement in China, and may even imply avoidance of harsh criticisms of China on the part of the local mass media.
The democracy movement will also have to guard against riots generated by its activities. The minor disturbances on 6-7 June 1989 prompted the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of the Patriotic Democratic Movement in China to cancel all rallies on 7 June, and many people have become more cautious about participating in political activities.
Doubts on the Sino-British Joint Declaration will pose a considerable problem, as this will weaken the document's value as part of the consensus of the community. The suggestion of Martin Lee, a leader of the democracy movement, that the agreement be re-negotiated and his proposal of a confederation joining Hong Kong and China are highly controversial and will not contribute to the building and strengthening of a consensus within the community.
Prospects for the democracy movement
The tragic power struggles in China have been a godsend to the local democracy movement. Its credibility and appeal have been much strengthened. At the same time, its future progress will still depend on developments in China.
Discussions on the future political system of the Hong Kong SAR will be meaningful only when the following two conditions are met. The first is that there must be a clear consensus so as to strengthen the unity of the community and thus enable it to appeal to Beijing and, to a lesser extent, the international community. The second is that, before 1997, there must be a credible and legitimate government in