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WINAAK (2)

Background

Mr Li

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Mr Li was born in London and educated at Cambridge. A copy of

his CV is attached. He is a prominent banker (Chief Executive of

the Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia) and wields considerable influence in financial circles. He is also a Legislative Councillor

(representing the financial functional constituency) and

Vice-Chairman of the Basic Law Drafting Committee. Mr Li has been

tipped as a possible candidate for the post of Chief Executive

after 1997. (See attached profile from Financial Times). His

political inclination is conservative, although he is not publicly

aligned to any particular political grouping.

2. Mr Li is visiting London on his way to attend the IMF/World

Bank meetings in Washington. He left Hong Kong on 16 September and

was not there during Mr Maude's visit.

Brain Drain

3. The number of people leaving Hong Kong has increased sharply in

the last couple of years, from 13,000 in 1986, to 45,000 in 1988.

The impact of recent events in China is unlikely to show up in

emigration figures until 1990/1991. The Hong Kong Government

estimates that emigration may reach 55,000 in 1990 and 60,000

thereafter. Private estimates put the figure a lot higher.

4. The banking sector has been particularly affected by the brain

drain. Mr Wrangham of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking

Corporation told Mr McLaren last week that 20% of the Bank's

managers had resigned last year. Like other companies, the

international banks are doing what they can to counter the problem

by posting key employees abroad to qualify for third country

passports and then bringing them back.

5. Mr Li is likely to stress the need for the financial sector to

be fully taken into account in the nationality package.

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