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by the United States of the termination of arms sales, and the possibly wider reluctance of Western Governments to give China access to military technology following these events may strengthen the resolve of those opposed to the hard-line supporters of Martial
Law.
CONCLUSION
10.
China is at present experiencing a leadership vacuum, both in the military and the civilian leadership, while the leaders appear stuck in a vicious struggle for power. Until the situation on the ground resolves itself, it will be impossible to predict the outcome. A further complicating factor is the possibly imminent
death of Deng Xiaoping.
For the moment the only coherent voice is
that of Yang Shangkun. But it seems highly unlikely that he is speaking on behalf of a united leadership. It is possible that a group of military and civilian leaders centred on Yang Shangkun and Li Peng now dominate the Government. But their position must be considered precarious and is likely to become more so if they continue to be unable to impose law and order. Under such circumstances it is not impossible that cracks might appear within the military, leading either to their ousting or possibly to armed
conflict between different groups.
11. It is also possible that the strains of recent weeks, combined with the lack of absolutely clear direction from on top, could lead individual units into conflict with one another which then might
escalate into more widespread violence.
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AUR. Wolky to
A NR Millington