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DENG XIAOPING
6.
As Chairman of the Military Commission, Deng had a crucial role
to play.
It is also likely that he was instrumental in gaining the, at times somewhat grudging, support of regional military commanders for the Martial Law decision. There are now reports that he is seriously ill. If this is the case, and especially if he dies, it ́ ́will add a further huge dose of uncertainty to the situation.
REGIONAL REACTION
7. The leadership have been concerned for some time to prevent
There the build up of regional power bases by local commands.
has been a deliberate policy of shifting the Commanders of Military Regions on a regular basis. All the seven Military Regions have made public declarations of their support for the 19 May decision on Martial Law. Elements from most regions have been
concentrated around Peking. There are reports
that the armed
forces
have intervened in Chengdu, and the situation in Shanghai and many
other major cities remains tense. So far there has been no indication that regional forces are prepared to disobey commands
from the centre.
MORALE FACTORS
on the
There was
8. It is a reasonable assumption that the military were whole reluctant to intervene in China's political crisis. never any obvious advantage in it for them, and over the last two years the military had withdrawn almost completely from political involvement. They have now first been deeply humiliated by the initial display of massive popular opposition on 20/21 May, and then, after the events of 3/4 June, they have lost all respect at least from the people of Peking. The shock of finding themselves continuing to have to fire on the unarmed population of the capital could well further damage already shaky morale and lead to splits. There have been reports of desertions and the abandonning of
equipment.
9. The modernisation and professionalism of the armed forces has brought many of the officer corps in contact with the West and they
are aware of the importance of Western technology. The announcement
AS 3AAZ/3
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