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hservative model for Hong Kong's post 1997 constitutional development. He has been subjected (rightly or wrongly) to much personal criticism in Hong Kong for his alleged role in promoting compromises on behalf of China. He has been the target of strong attacks by the liberals. He may have decided that his position had
become intolerable.
in criticising Cha's decision, has made clear that he
would not resign from the BLDC at this stage, but would consider
doing so if China became more autocratic and produced a conservative
Basic Law. But Maria Tam is reported as having said that she would
consider resigning if the Chinese authorities used force against the
students.
(c) Visits to Hong Kong from China
For obvious reasons,
planned visits to Hong Kong by Ji Pengfei and Mainland Basic Law
drafters have been postponed. The Chinese have also declined our
suggestion for a JLG Interplenary meeting between Mr McLaren and
Ambassador Ke on 2 June.
Conclusions
3.
At best (ie assuming a peaceful resolution of the crisis and
the emergence of a new leadership committed broadly to the same policies as before) Hong Kong's confidence in China has been badly shaken. But if there is eventually a crackdown involving bloodshed and leading to the emergence of a conservative or leftist leadership, people in Hong Kong will certainly begin seriously to question the value of the Joint Declaration and of the Basic Law.
4. Judging from the EXCO discussion, two immediate consequences of what has happened so far are likely to be:
(a)
(b)
an extension of the Basic Law consultation period;
calls for a faster rate of constitutional development
before 1997.
Alian
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A R Paul