CONFIDENTIAL
improving relations. (Incidentally, in that context Mr Murata endorsed Mr Isomura's (NHK) points at a recent EC Ambassadors' lunch about the press at the top level being run by able but somewhat left of centre classmates of many bureaucrats; but he too agreed that there was no single individual or group orchestrating the press over Recruit, consumption tax or plain straight opposition to the LDP. But Murata was quite disparaging of the press and referred to them generally as a set of people who had "something of an inferiority complex".)
Domestic Politics
5.
Mr Murata and Mr Fujii generally agreed with the broad scenario which we have set out on a number of occasions in the past week of Diet business leading to a general election in the fairly near future. They also agreed that the LDP needed leadership, policies and time. On leadership, Mr Murata commented that "Komoto would be disastrous". But clearly both of them thought that the LDP could probably survive longer than say October or November (January was about the latest possible moment that either of them was prepared to entertain as a serious possibility despite the obvious LDP hopes to last until the spring of next year). Mr Murata was somewhat more sanguine about the likely results in any general election even if it were held this year rather than next, and in this he was supported by Mr Fujii. Their starting point was that the Lower House was not the same as the Upper House; the LDP members had their own base in the constituencies and this, coupled with a pause for thought by a number of voters who had either abstained or switched to the JSP, could produce a somewhat different result. Moreover, the JSP only had 130 candidates at the moment and even if the number went up to 200 this would not be a winning field. The centre parties were facing a difficult time. Both were prepared to concede that it was unlikely that the LDP would retain its majority, with Mr Murata being somewhat more sanguine than Mr Fujii, but both put about 225 seats as the minimum that the LDP was likely to get. Both agreed that in circumstances in which the LDP failed to obtain a majority it would still be preferable, provided that the JSP did not have to form a coalition with the Communists, that the Socialists should be given the opportunity of trying to govern the country. Their tactic was plainly to push the JSP forward in circumstances in which it was bound to fail, they thought even within perhaps as short a time as 6 months rather than the 2 years of which I spoke. They foresaw problems of policies and perception; Miss Doi was trying to play things quietly and long but the Security Treaty, the 3 non nuclear principles and that general defence complex would present the JSP with a serious problem, some aspects of which it could scarcely avoid even in the short term. The Socialists were being backed by those who seemed to ignore the outside world and seemed to think the only factors at present were Recruit, the consumption tax and the liberalisation in the agricultural field. Mr Fujii also referred to the Asahi playing matters quite irresponsibly at this stage by carrying articles of a completely different tenor on
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