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JAPAN'S ROLE IN THE WORLD
15. Fujii introduced. Professor Inoguchi's article in International Affairs (winter 88/89) on four Japanese scenarios for the future was required reading. He saw four possibilities: Pax Americana; "Bigemony"; Pax consortis; Pax nipponica. (I circulated copies of the Inoguchi article in the Office last May; please let me know if you would like to see it again.)
16. Fujii said that the third option (pax consortis), defined as a world of consortia in which the major actors proceed by converging coalitions and agreements, a world in which no single actor can dominate the rest, was the only sensible long-range target. The others were either not feasible or downright dangerous.
17.
Points in discussion:
Japan lacked confidence about its long-term prosperity. These doubts were justified. For example, a major change in oil prices would have a shattering effect (Akimoto).
Japan's fears were exaggerated. More real were American and European fears of Japanese technological domination (viz semi-conductors). But it was right to bring Japan increasingly into the decision-making processes of the West (all British participants).
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