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In
in 1989 with the prospect of a hard, rather than a soft, landing. If the experience of the first half of 1986 is anything to go by, the year-on-year growth rate of China's gross industrial output may slow down to 4% or 5%. that year, the value Hong Kong's domestic exports to China increased by 19% but that of re-exports declined by 11% compared with 1985. Thus Hong Kong's exports to China may enter a period of consolidation next year. This may be no bad thing given that Hong Kong is presently suffering from the inflationary consequences of excess demand for its
products.
Economic Analysis Division Economic Services Branch Government Secretariat 13 December 1988
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