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CONFIDENTIAL

14

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1987

(18)

The industrial growth rates for the Pearl River Delta region and the three special economic zones are believed to have been even faster than the provincial

average. Guangdong's exports also increased rapidly, by

(19). 34.5% to US$7.4 billion in 1988

Guangdong now

accounts for nearly one-fifth of China's exports

22.

(20)

But at the same time the problem of overheating

was more serious in Guangdong than in most other

provinces. In the first ten months of 1988 the retail

price index was on average 27.7% higher than in the same period in 1987 and for the year as a whole, the rate was expected to exceed 28%. (The national average for 1988

was only 18.5% (paragraph 9).) In the third quarter of 1988, the year-on-year rate of increase in the payroll of all employees in the province was high, at 36%. As electricity supply was about 30% short of demand, many factories were forced to suspend production for three days a week. Supplies of both coal and grain were insufficient. Also, there were serious shortages of key industrial raw materials including rolled steel, metal products, chemicals and construction materials.

(18) The second fastest growing province in terms of gross

industrial output in 1988 was probably Fujian, which recorded a growth rate of 30%.

(19) Statistics for Guangdong's exports probably include goods from other provinces purchased by enterprises in Guangdong for export. But goods in transit through Guangdong are not counted as Guangdong's exports. The larger figure of US$10.1 billion for the first three quarters of 1988 quoted in paragraph 26 of the Third Quarter Report included goods in transit.

(20) This is based on the MOFERT figure of US$40.1

billion, given in footnote (11), because only the MOFERT total can be broken down by provinces.

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