CONFIDENTIAL
-
3
機密
individual leaders are mixed, and observers views reflect
this. According to one reading, Secretary-General Zhao Ziyang has suffered most from the set-back to the rapid reform with
which he has been most associated. Li Peng's implied criticism of specific aspects of the earlier line, including price reform and over-emphasis on the coastal policy is seen as a boost for Li over Zhao. However, HM Embassy in Peking point out that Li
Peng himself is associated with the admitted failure of a policy the execution of which he was, in practice, responsible
for from the 13th Congress in 1987 when he became acting
Premier.
8.
The Embassy consider that Li's opponents may have been working to manouvre Lim into a position where he will become
increasingly vulnerable. Li is likely to bear the brunt of any
disgruntlement should the unpopular austerity programme not
bring the required results or should it lead to stagflation.
It was noteworthy that Li's report did not pay much attention to "moral education" a problem that Deng Xiao Ping described to
the Ugandan President as more serious than inflation. Some
have seen this comment as a veiled criticism of Li who headed
the State Education Commission between 1985 and 1988.
Zhao may
indeed have been attempting to seize the ideological high
ground by recent stress on the importance of "moral education" and party discipline. At the press conference after the
Congress, Li did not show any sign of. a crack in confidence. Both he and Zhao are taking opportunities of appearances in public to show that each is still operating effectively.
9.
This NPC session was important because it resolved to carry on with economic stabilisation policies at least in the
short-term. But it also revealed increasing and unresolved strains on a large number of issues. There was nothing in the
events or implications of the session to rule out Deng's
retiring from his last formal offices, as he would like to
later this year, or to dislodge Zhao as his most likely
political (and military) heir. But this will now have to be
CONFIDENTIAL
機密