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4.
The atmosphere of caution was heightened by the recent riots in Tibet and the imposition of marshal law there. The leadership are manouvering with great care, both to avoid the impression of too heavy a crack down and to leave the door open for talks with the Dalai Lama. But the prospects in that area are poor and martial law is likely to remain for some time.
5.
Tibet in turn has sharpened the focus of internal and international opinion on human rights issues in China, including the fate of Wei Jingsheng and other imprisoned
dissidents. The pressure is likely to grow and the response of the leadership is bound to be cautious and in some cases heavy
handed. That in turn will affect attitudes in Hong Kong. The
PRC Customs' handling of the Hong Kong petition on Wei Jingsheng at Tianjin was a case in point, although the authorities seem to have recognised that the initial reaction
had been unwise, by passing the petition on to the NPC. But overall the message on 'democracy' is that progress will be
slow. Li Peng indeed stressed this in a statement on 3 April.
6.
China will find itself more in the international eye
over its internal policy, partly as a result of the rapid
changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The PRC are
clearly looking forward to the Sino-Soviet summit in May as an
important element in their more active foreign policy.
Nevertheless, there have been warnings from leaders, including
the Foreign Minister, not to expect too much from the talks
with the Russians. These have referred principally to the
continuance of the "Three Obstacles" to relations.
addition the Chinese may be wary of too close an association,
particularly in Party-to-Party terms, with the concept of over-rapid Perestroika.
Leadership
But in
7.
The indications of the balance of influence of
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