CONFIDENTIAL
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MDHIAN 539
4. HOWEVER, THE ODDS ARE STILL ON ZHAO RETAINING THE GENERAL SECRETARYSHIP. I AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT DENG WILL STEP DOWN FORMALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION OVER THE COMING MONTHS, IN WHICH CASE ZHAO IS THE OBVIOUS (AND BY MANY ACCOUNTS ALREADY DESIGNATED) SUCCESSOR. BUT THIS POST ALONE WOULD NOT PROVIDE HIM WITH A CREDIBLE POWER BASE AND IT IS HARD TO SEE WHY THE MILITARY THEMSELVES SHOULD RESPECT HIS AUTHORITY IF HE DID NOT ALSO REMAIN PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY.
5. ZHAO'S ROLE IN THE LATTER OFFICE HAS IN ANY CASE EVOLVED IN A WAY THAT MAKES IT LESS CREDIBLE, LET ALONE NECESSARY, FOR A MEMBER OF LI PENG'S ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT TEAM TO TAKE OVER. HE HAS MOVED BACK FROM DAY-TO-DAY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ECONOMY IN LINE WITH THE DECISION TO SEPARATE PARTY AND GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITIES. HE NOW APPEARS CHIEFLY IN HIS NEWLY ADOPTED ROLE AS TOP SPOKESMAN FOR GREATER PARTY AND SOCIAL DISCIPLINE, A THEME WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DENG'S AND OTHER WIDESPREAD SUPPORT. HE THUS COMPLEMENTS RATHER THAN COMPETES WITH OR THREATENS LI PENG, MAKING A BALANCED TEAM. BOTH DENG AND LI ARE NOW STRESSING THE NEED TO PRESERVE STABILITY, AVOID PANIC OR CONFLICT AT THE TOP AND CONCENTRATE ON THE SHORT TERM TASK OF ECONOMIC STABILISATION. IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW PUSHING ZHAO ASIDE AND UNBALANCING THE TEAM WITH ANOTHER LI PENG SUPPORTER WOULD HELP, NOT LEAST BECAUSE OF THE HOPE IT WOULD GIVE TO THE REAL
CONSERVATIVES.
6
YAO YILIN, ALTHOUGH A POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE MEMBER (LAST RANKING) AND A VICE-PREMIER, HARDLY MEASURES UP TO THE JOB OF GENERAL SECRETARY. HE HAS NO HISTORY OF INVOLVEMENT IN GENERAL POLITICAL OR IDEOLOGICAL WORK. HE IS ALSO TWO YEARS OLDER THAN ZHAO.
IN SHORT, WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STORY BEING TRUE, AND ARE SURE SOME CHINESE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT WOULD LIKE IT TO BE, WE WOULD PLACE A MODEST BET THAT ZHAO WILL SURVIVE AND THAT DENG, WHOSE RECORD FOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS IS STRONG, WILL ENGINEER A SMOOTH SUCCESSION BEFORE RETIRING TO HIS HOME PROVINCE.
DONALD
YYYY
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