5.
CONFIDENTIAL
Were it not for Mr Gorbachev's visit the authorities
might well have decided to sit it out until the end of
the University term (in July). They are already taking
action behind the scenes. There have been reports that
some prominent intellectuals have been warned off giving
support to the students cause. They might well step this up by seeking to identify and arrest student leaders. It
is ominous that the State Council spokesman referred on 3 May to the alleged role played by the US-based Alliance
for Democracy. If handled uncautiously, however, such action would just as easily set off the very
demonstrations it was intended to prevent.
C
6.
Both the authorities and the students will need to
exercise caution and restraint if a face saving way out
is to be found. As far as the leadership is concerned
Sir Alan Donald has argued (Peking telno 740) that the
failure of the government's tough stance represented by
the People's Daily editorial of 26 April has already
meant personal humilation for the Premier Li Peng and
possibly also for Deng Xiaoping. But no member of the
leadership seems ready to take the risk of adopting a
resolute stance (either in using the students demands to
push through political reforms or in using the state apparatus to prevent further manifestations) for fear of the possibly adverse consequences.
The opportunities may
/well
4
CONFIDENTIAL