00
B
CONFIDENTIAL
41
of 4 May, Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang warned that
"if social unrest returns with large-scale disruption of
production, study and work, a country of promise will be
turned into a country of hopelessness and turbulence.
Stability, he said, did not mean the elimination of
democracy, but democracy should be channelled into order
and legality. The demonstrations themselves passed off
peacefully and the authorities showed their customary
restraint in handling them (Peking telno 754).
2. It is difficult to see where either side can easily go from here.
The last nearly three weeks have seen the
most sustained act of mass public political dissent since
1949 (not counting the anarchistic excess of the Cultural
Revolution). There are no more emotive anniversaries
such as 4 May falling in the immediate future but it is
less than two weeks until Mr Gorbachev's arrival on
15 May, which by coincidence will be one month to the day
since the death of Hu Yaobang. The students have built
up considerable momentum since the demonstrations began
and they are unlikely to be willing to dissipate this by returning quietly to their campuses. 15 May could serve
as a useful focal point for further demonstrations.
authorities' uncompromising rejection of the students'
rather extreme preconditions has meanwhile left them in a
quandary. To back down would mean losing face. But a policy of confrontation would risk alienating the
support of more moderate
The
2 -
CONFIDENTIAL
/elements