CONFIDENTIAL

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Up to the beginning of this year the Chinese had had some successes with their tactics. Over the years a steady stream of countries have broken with Taiwan and recognised the PRC instead. Since the Taiwan authorities began allowing residents of Taiwan to visit the mainland a great many have done so. Taiwan investment in the mainland, encouraged by State Council regulations giving investors from Taiwan special privileges and the creation of special Taiwan economic zones in Fujian, has developed rapidly. Indirect trade between the mainland and Taiwan (the Taiwan authorities still do not allow direct trade) has also increased rapidly, reaching a total of 6.411 billion Hong Kong dollars in the first quarter of this year, a 67.4% increase over the same period last year. The mainland is now Taiwan's fifth largest trading partner, and Taiwan the mainland's sixth. An additional beneficial spin-off from the Chinese government's point of view of the economic developments has been the creation in Taiwan of a lobby amongst businessmen pressing the authorities in Taiwan for further relaxations of their policy on contacts with the mainland, and in particular for direct trade.

5.

The Chinese government's attitude to third country contacts with Taiwan is very much dictated by the logic of their tactics to achieve peaceful reunification. While they tolerate commercial and people-to-people contacts (they no more want Taiwan impoverished than they do Hong Kong or Macao), they object strongly to anything that could be interpreted as official contact and thus as a reduction of Taiwan's international isolation. Although it is true that the US and Japan do have quasi-official relations with Taiwan, retention of these was part of the price for their recognising the PRC and the Chinese government deeply resents it. Taiwan is still a major irritant in Sino-US and Sino- Japanese relations, and arguably reduces the leeway for the American and Japanese authorities to confront the PRC over other problems. Chinese expressions of displeasure over "unacceptable" contact with Taiwan have varied over the years, the most extreme being the reduction of relations with the Netherlands to Charge level in 1979 following the sale of submarines to Taiwan by the Dutch government, and the suspension of relations altogether with countries which have established relations with the "Republic of China" (eg Grenada, Liberia and Belize).

6.

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The Chinese government's sensitivity to contacts with Taiwan was increased towards the end of last year when the Taiwan authorities proclaimed their new policy of "flexible diplomacy". The essence of this policy was that Taiwan would try to establish "quasi" diplomatic relations with countries which maintained diplomatic relations with the PRC and would be more flexible in its approach to the terms under which it would be willing to participate in international organisations of which the PRC was a member. The Chinese

/government

CONFIDENTIAL

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