CONFIDENTIAL
045647 1
MDLIAN
POLITICAL ISSUES ON WHICH THE FINGER COULD WELL POINT TOWARDS CHINA (FOR EXAMPLE, OVER ''COAST HOPPING'' VIETNAMESE REFUGEES).
(B) THE CHINESE DO NOT GRASP, OR AT ANY RATE OFTEN PRETEND NOT TO GRASP WHEN IT SUITS THEM, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PARLIAMENT AND GOVERNMENT IN WESTERN COUNTRIES. THE VICE-FOREIGN MINISTER, ZHOU NAN, HAS IMPLIED TO ME THAT THE PUBLICITY IN HONG KONG OVER THE ISSUE OF DEFENCE AND PUBLIC ORDER AND THE SITING OF THE CHINESE GARRISON AFTER 1997 WAS INSPIRED BY THE BRITISH SIDE TO EMBARRASS THE CHINESE NEGOTIATORS. THERE IS SOME RISK, THEREFORE, THAT SOME IN THE PEKING GOVERNMENT MAY BE TEMPTED TO SEE H M G AS IN SOME WAY BEHIND THE DECISION OF THE F A C TO LOOK INTO HONG KONG. THEY WILL WONDER WHY IT WAS STIMULATED AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME DURING THE DRAFTING STAGES OF THE BASIC LAW. PERHAPS MOST SERIOUS OF ALL THEY WILL NOT HESITATE TO BLAME THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IF THE EXERCISE TURNS SOUR.
4.
I HAVE, I HASTEN TO SAY, NO REASON TO PREDICT THE WORST. I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT GREAT CARE WILL BE TAKEN TO BRIEF THE MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POLITICAL SENSITIVITIES IN RESPECT OF CHINA. BUT IT IS WORTH BEARING SOME OF THE WORST POSSIBILITIES IN MIND.
5. FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT FORMALLY CONSIDER THE FAC'S REQUEST TO COME HERE, THEY MAY HAVE MANY MORE QUESTIONS TO ASK ABOUT THE SCOPE OF THE ENQUIRY, THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE BEING GIVEN TO THE VISITS TO HONG KONG AND PEKING, THE NATURE OF THE HEARING IN HONG KONG AND THE NATURE OF DISCUSSIONS WITH CHINESE LEADERS IN PEKING. IT IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION THAT THEY WILL AGREE TO COOPERATE.
6.
WHEN AND IF THE FAC DO COME HERE THERE IS A FURTHER RISK THAT CHINESE SPOKESMEN WILL BE INSTRUCTED TO GIVE THEM A TOUGH ''SOVEREIGNTY'' LINE.
LINE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE F A C MAY BEHAVE IN WAYS THE CHINESE DO NOT LIKE.
IVAN LAWRENCE, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH HIS KNOWN VIEWS ON HUMAN RIGHTS, MAY BE TEMPTED TO PURSUE THE HONG KONG/TIBET PARALLEL.
7. IT IS THEREFORE AT LEAST WORTH CONSIDERING HOW FAR WE CAN GUARD AGAINST H M G, THE F C O AND THIS EMBASSY BEING SADDLED WITH THE BLAME IF THE F A C ENQUIRY DAMAGES OUR ESSENTIAL COOPERATION WITH THE CHINESE EITHER DURING OR AFTER THE VISIT. I WONDER WHETHER THERE COULD BE PARTICULAR ATTENTION APPLIED TO BRIEFING MR. HOWELL AND HIS OFFICIALS ON CHINESE SENSITIVITIES
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