α
12.
For working purposes, we can assume an average
time lag between the grant of an immigrant visa and the
physical departure of the person concerned. (At present
we take this to be 6 months though it may be possible to
refine this figure after further study.) Given what we
already know about the number of visas issued in
Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter of 1987 and
First Quarter of 1988 plus our projection for
Second Quarter, then we can forecast the actual
departures for emigration purposes during 1988 will be
about 49,000. On the same basis, the figure for 1987 was
about 30,000.
13.
There are no reliable statistics on the number
of returned emigrants. If we compare over a long period
the visas issued figure (and assume a 100% take up) with the net outflow figure and assume that the difference is
made up by returned emigrants, then it would seem that
the proportion of those emigrating who subsequently return to Hong Kong is approximately 17%.
However, it
should be emphasised that this figure must be treated
with very great caution. Moreover, since only those with
Hong Kong travel documents are included in the ID flow
statistics, the figures do not include those who return
to Hong Kong and gain entry using their new passport.
14.
It is simply not possible to forecast the
movements of persons who have emigrated.
remain permanently in their new country.
Some will
Others will