CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 23090OZ FCO
TELNO 3579
OF 22110OZ SEPTEMBER 88
INFO DESKBY 23010OZ PEKING
CONFIDENTIAL
46.
123521
MDHIAN 4875
Q DIST 7
нко
3415
MY THIRD IPT : MY ADDRESS TO LEGCO : EMIGRATION
BEGINS
109.
POPULATION MOBILITY HAS LONG BEEN A FEATURE OF HONG KONG.
MANY OF OUR RESIDENTS MIGRATED HERE FROM CHINA. AND THROUGHOUT HONG KONG'S HISTORY MANY HAVE CHOSEN TO MOVE OVERSEAS FOR EDUCATION, TRAINING, CAREER REASONS OR PERMANENT SETTLEMENT.
(A)
EMIGRATION
110. BUT RECENT INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMIGRATING ARE A
CAUSE OF CONCERN. ADDED TO THE TRADITIONAL REASONS IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE AND THE SEARCH FOR SOME SORT OF
INSURANCE POLICY. WE SHOULD LIKE TO HAVE ACCURATE STATISTICS TO
ASSESS THE REAL NATURE OF THE PROBLEM. BUT THESE ARE HARD ΤΟ COME BY. WE DO NOT KEEP A RECORD OF THE REASONS WHY PEOPLE LEAVE HONG KONG NOR OF HOW LONG THEY PROPOSE TO BE AWAY.
111. IN ORDER TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM, A GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE WAS SET UP EARLIER THIS YEAR TO GATHER INFORMATION ABOUT EMIGRATION. THEIR ESTIMATE, AND I STRESS THAT IT IS NO MORE THAN AN ESTIMATE, IS THAT SOME 30,000 PEOPLE LEFT IN 1987 WHILE APPROXIMATELY 3,000 FORMER EMIGRANTS RETURNED USING THEIR OLD HONG KONG TRAVEL DOCUMENTS. AN ADDITIONAL BUT UNKNOWN
NUMBER PROBABLY RETURNED USING THEIR NEWLY ACQUIRED PASSPORTS. THE TASK FORCE ALSO ESTIMATES THAT AROUND 45,000 PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO EMIGRATE THIS YEAR. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW MANY FORMER EMIGRANTS WILL RETURN IN 1988. BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE NET OUTWARD FLOW WILL EXCEED 40,000. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE HIGHER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1 OR 2 YEARS.
112. THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS SOME OF THE MORE ALARMIST REPORTS HAVE SUGGESTED. BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE COMPARED, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1981 AND 1986 WHEN
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CONFIDENTIAL