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i)
the level of emigration averaged around 20,000 per annum in
the early 1980's. But it increased sharply in 1987 to 30,000 (or
27,000 net): and it will do so again in 1988 to about 45,000 (or
over 40,000 net).
ii)
the proportion of working professionals among those who
emigrate is around 24% (ie. some 7300 professionals left in 1987
and about 11,000 are likely to do so in 1988). The total stock of
professionals in Hong Kong is estimated to be about 279,000 (ie. 5%
of the population). This means that in 1988 about 4% of the total stock will have emigrated.
iii) the proportion of university degree holders among those who
emigrate in 1987-88 is estimated to be over 16% (degree holders
comprise 3% of the population). In absolute terms the numbers are
close to double the local production of new first degree graduates
in the two years. But if new graduates produced locally and
overseas are taken together, these are expected to exceed losses of
graduates through emigration by about 3,000 per year in 1987 and
88.
iv)
Canada, Australia and the United States constitute the
overwhelming majority of emigration destinations (over 97.5% of the
total). Recent changes in immigration policies of each of those countries have created additional emigration opportunities for Hong
Kong people.
v)
the private sector (particularly banking and computing) has been hard hit by losses of skilled personnel, notably at the middle management level; but the situation is just about manageable at
current levels.
Possible Remedies
5. The memorandum summarises the various ways in which emigration might be contained or its effects minimised. Many of those featured in the Governor's Legco speech. In essence they boil down to:
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