CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
CORRECTED VERSION TELNO AND TEXT
TO PRIORITY FCO
TELNO 3635
OF 290700Z SEPTEMBER 88
22
TOP COPY Q DIST ?
152223
AN 1387
IHKD 243/ls
1. REGISTRY
30 SEP 1988
SK OFFICER
STRY
N
INFO PRIORITY KUALA LUMPUR, CANBERRA, HANO I INFO ROUTINE BANGKOK, JAKARTA, BANDAR SERI BAGAWAN, SINGAPORE, PEKING
VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE IN HONG KONG
VIETNAMESE EFFORTS TO PREVENT DEPARTURES
1. WE HAVE HAD NO ARRIVALS IN HONG KONG SINCE 14 SEPTEMBER AND THE DAILY AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER IS DOWN TO 13. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO RE CERTAIN ABOUT THE CAUSE OF THIS QUITE DRAMATIC REDUCTION. SEASONAL FACTORS CERTAINLY PLAY A PART. IT IS QUITE NORMAL FOR THE RATE OF ARRIVALS TO FALL DURING SEPTEMBER AND TO REMAIN ON A LOW PLATEAU UNTIL THE SPRING OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR. THE DIFFERENCE THIS YEAR IS THAT THE RATE HAS DECLINED TO ZERO AND THIS IS UNUSUAL.
·
2 IT SEEMS TO US THAT THERE ARE THREE FACTORS WORKING TO REDUCE THE RATE OF ARRIVALS. THE SEASONAL TREND IS BASED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH BECOME UNFAVOURABLE FOR THE JOURNEY DURING SEPTEMBER.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES ARE PASSING ON THE MESSAGE THAT HK IS NOW PREPARED TO REPATRIATE BOAT PEOPLE, AND ARE PERSUADING VBP TO RETURN TO VIETNAM RATHER THAN PRESSING ON TO HONG KONG. WE HAVE MADE OUR CONCERNS KNOWN TO THEM ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AND WE HAVE RECEIVED ASSURANCES OF THEIR BEST ENDEAVOURS.
3.
THE THIRD FACTOR IS OF COURSE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN VIETNAM, IE BOTH VIETNAMESE EFFORTS TO PREVENT DEPARTURES AND THE SPREADING OF THE MESSAGE IN VIETNAM THAT HONG KONG IS NO LONGER A ROUTE TO RESETTLEMENT. WE HAVE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MESSAGE IS GETTING THROUGH TO VIETNAM AND WE HAVE RECENTLY HEARD REPORTS VIA U.S. CONSULAR OFFICIALS IN HONG KONG THAT THE VIETNAMESE ARE TAKING MORE EFFECTIVE MEASURES TO PREVENT DEPARTURES. WE THINK IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE AS CLEAR A PICTURE AS POSSIBLE OF VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT EFFORTS BEFORE WE START THE SECOND ROUND OF BILATERALS.
4 ADAMS CU.S. CONSULATE) REFERRED TO
O
AN AUSTRALIAN REPORT FROM
H ANO I VIA KUALA LUMPUR WHICH SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE IMPRESSION THAT THE VIETNAMESE ARE TAKING ACTION. WE ALSO HEAR THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO ARRIVALS IN MALAYSIA FOR ONE MONTH, AND THAT THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO
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