CONFIDENTIAL
VIETNAMESE REFUGEES
10.
The latest statistics on Vietnamese refugees in South East Asia are attached.
11.
The UK has observer status at the bi-annual meetings of the Inter-governmental Consultative Group on Indo-Chinese Refugees, an informal gathering of the three main resettlement countries (USA, Canada, Australia) plus Japan and UNHCR. The next meeting scheduled for Ottawa in April. Thailand, growing frustrated by the slow down in resettlement of Vietnamese refugees has started towing new arrivals back to sea. Hong Kong too is under increasingly acute pressure, both because of the fall-off in resettlement, especially to the US, which believes the UK should be doing more, and also by the increase in arrivals. 1987 arrivals were the highest fo
12.
Since 1983.
The root cause lies in Vietnam, which turns a blind eye to most departures - it values the remittance that emigrants send back (in 1987 at roughly $70 million this was its largest earner of hard currency). UNHCR has suggested to the ICG that multilateral aid must be offered to Vietnam to persuade it to accept back boat people who do not fulfil refugee criteria. ICG wishes to consider further but concrete proposals from UNHCR are awaited. No ad
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? 13. UNHCR continues to look to resettlement countries to accept new arrivals, but with the continuing exodus of Vietnamese, and greater pressure from elsewhere, countries are increasingly reluctant to accord priority to Vietnamese, causing particular problems for Hong Kong.
AFGHAN REFUGEES
14.
Hopes of a Soviet withdrawal have been raised by Mr Gorbachev's 8 February statement setting a 10-month timetable begining on 15 May (if Geneva agreement is reached). This, combined with President Zia's statement to Mr Eggar on 9 February that he was cofident agreement could be reached on an interim government, has given the peace process added momentum. Cordovez is optimistic. But much ground remains to be covered.
15.
A Soviet withdrawal will have implications for the Afghan refugees, numbering about five million - a third of the pre-war population. Something over three million are in Pakistan, mostly in the NWFP. About another 1 to 1 million are in Iran. There is a large but indeterminate number of internal refugees who have fled either to the cities or to Resistance-controlled areas. The flow of refugees out of Pakistan continues at just over a thousand per month, though the fighting round Khost in late 1987 produced a sudden influx of ten to twenty thousand more.
16. The return of refugees will be the litmus test of any Afgan settlement. Whether they return or not will depend on its exact terms. I f as seems possible the Russians withdraw without any interim arrangements, there is likely to be civil war between the
CONFIDENTIAL