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BAH's forecasts for international voice traffic are less optimistic than those of HKT/CWHK. International voice revenues are forecast to grow by over 100% over the next decade. The share received by CWHK will grow from HK$1,150 million in 1987 to HK$2,321 million by 1997.
Telex
Telex is the most important telecommunication service offered by CWHK after the telephone service. CWHK has almost 30,000 telex subscribers who spend almost HK$1 billion gross excluding rental. The main user group is the financial sector who account for about 30% of total usage, followed by the import/export sector with 18%. Although these major user sections have historically had high growth rates, the telex market is a mature market which is also being superceded in many instances by facsimile. During the year ended March 1987, international traffic generated from facsimile machines grew by over 200%. The number of telex lines has increased on average by 10% p.a. over the past 5 years, but the growth in number of subscribers is now forecast by CWHK to be 38 in the current year and 2% in 88/89. Telex traffic reached a peak in 86/87, and is now declining.
International leased circuits
CWHK currently leases around 1,830 international leased circuits representing some HK$326 million in revenues. The financial sector is again by far the largest user accounting for about 50% of the total. The international banks have extensive data networks and use Hong Kong as a hub with 10 to 20 incoming/outgoing lines. Other major users include the information industry providers (Reuters, Telerate), the travel/transportation sector and the regional headquarters for the multinational companies. This market is also considered quite mature. Most companies will not increase their number of lines but will increase the speed of traffic. The historical growth has been at about 5% p.a. and is expected by BAH to remain at that level for the next decade falling to 3% p.a. from 1997 and thereafter.
Other services
Other international services are assumed to grow at the same rate as international leased lines for the next decade and then to grow slightly faster as a result of the development of new value added services.
For the local payment for international voice telephony traffic several assumptions are made :
i.
The present 40:60 method of settlement remains in force, with approximately 42% of the telephone revenues going to HKT. (This is due to HKT receiving 60% of the revenue for international calls to South China).
ii.
Incoming and outgoing traffic are assumed to be equal.
iii.
Figures shown are pre-tax, net revenues less the Government Royalty (Collection + Inpayments Outpayments).
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