4.
International voice telephony
The total international voice telephony market is valued at approximately HK$2 billion for 1987 with 40-42% or HK$798 million being paid to HKT under the agreed method of settlement. International traffic measured in minutes has grown at 31% p.a. between 1977 and 1985. The latest review in the Interim Report of HKT reported "a 63% increase in international telephone traffic over the same period last year, rising to 36 million calls." BAH assumes, more cautiously, that paid minutes will only increase at a rate of 6% p.a. from 1996 and thereafter.
Other franchised services
The growth of demand for other franchised services such as PMRS and VAS interconnection, public payphone, administration fees property rental, telephone repairs and other miscellaneous charges are set to grow at a rate of 5% p.a. which is again lower than that projected by HKT.
Obligatory services
International data, Datapak and other data services
Data services have been growing in real terms very rapidly over the past few years. Datapak the local packet switched network is the second most important service within Obligatory after Datel accounting for almost one third of the revenues. Although Datapak has suffered difficulties in establishing a firm market base and from customer dissatisfaction due to billing by time rather than by distance, it has expanded by over 90% over the past six months. In the future data services will grow more in line with the expansion of business and financial services. BAH assumes a 15% to 10% p.a. growth over the next decade followed by 6% p.a. thereafter.
Non franchised services
Over the past four years, HKT has established an impressive growth in non franchised services. The three subsidiaries CSL, Computasia and IBS make up approximately 31% of the total turnover of HKT and account for 35% of the total profit. [4] HKT has not given any forecasts for these services but BAH assumes that they may not match the remarkable growth achieved in the early years when they first inherited HKT's products, services and customers. These growth rates however spurred on by the worldwide interest in value added services will still be high at 12% p.a., falling to 5% in 1996 and thereafter.
For the forecasts of future revenues the present tariff structure is adopted for the base year 1987/88 with the existing installation charges, line rental charges, special connection charges (i.e. for Faxline), free local calls and charges for international calls. А tariff index was calculated based on the average revenue per line or per
CSL, IBS and Computasia do not publish their financial results as wholly owned subsidiaries of HKT.
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