布政司署
香港下亞畢道
CONFIDENTIAL
77
GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT
LOWER ALBERT ROAD
HONG KONG
(11) in ESB CR 13/2586/83(88)II
本署檔號 OUR REF:
來函檔號 YOUR REF:
ROBAJE
Mr R.C.L. Footman,
Hong Kong Department,
London, SW1A 2AH,
U.K.
Foreign and Commonwealth Office,
2. PA
R. &P
June 3, 1988
1.Vec Mr Wright, Economie Andes. HKC 090/1 N/C
Dear
Robfert,
Nalb
Report on Capital Investment in Hong Kong
-
Fourth Quarter of 1987
10
Thank you for your letter of 3 May 1988 conveying several comments on the above report from your Economic Advisers. The suggestion made in paragraph 4 of your letter has been taken up in the current issue of the report, which is on the way to Christopher Hum.
On the comments made in paragraphs 5-7 of your letter, I have the following observations :
(a)
(b)
The data do show that there is a fair degree of correlation between retained imports of machinery for manufacturing use and domestic exports over the recent years. A table is attached for your information.
The manufacturing sector currently absorbs roughly one third of Hong Kong's total labour force. Moreover, some of the jobs in other sectors, such as import/export trade, external transport, and finance and business services, are indirectly related to manufacturing. Experience shows that a slackening in export demand generally leads to some slackening in the labour market conditions. There are already some limited signs of this happening this year.
Thus, it seems unlikely that
the pressure to invest in labour-saving equipment will remain as strong if the growth in export demand continues to ease. Interest rates in Hong Kong have already risen this year and may well rise further, especially if
US interest rates rise again. I, nevertheless, agree that the relationship between export demand and investment is far from simple.
CONFIDENTIAL
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