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170342 MDHIAN 4684
}
HAD TOLD QIAN THAT INDONESIA HAD AGREED TO TAKE PART IN THE JIM TO
SAVE VIETNAMESE FACE: WITHOUT INDONESIAN PARTICIPATION VIETNAM WOULD
HAVE FELT ITSELF ALONE IN THE DOCK AND WOULD NEVER HAVE AGREED TO
COME. BUT ONCE TALKS GOT GOING IT WOULD BE CLEAR THAT VIETNAM WAS
THE REAL FOCUS AND THE INDONESIANS COULD WITHDRAW. AS FOR THE
RUSSIANS, PUBLICLY THEY SAID THEY WOULD
THEY SAID THEY WOULD NOT PRESSURISE VIETNAM BUT
IN PRIVATE THEY CLAIMED THEY HAD WORKED VERY HARD AND THAT 50,000 TROOPS CUT ACCOUNCEMENT WAS THE RESULT OF THEIR EFFORTS. IT WAS
HARD TO SAY WHICH WAS TRUE.
US/SOVIET RELATIONS AND SOVIET AFFAIRS
6.
THE US AND USSR HAD HAD FOUR SUMMITS AND TWENTY FOREIGN
MINISTER MEETINGS IN BARELY TWO YEARS. SUCH AGREEMENT AS THEY HAD
REACHED AND THE GENERAL EASING OF CONFRONTATION WERE WELCOME, BUT THEY HAD FOUND IT HARD TO DISPOSE OF ALL THE WORLD'S PROBLEMS.
PROGRESS ON STRATEGIC WEAPONS WAS STILL DIFFICULT. BOTH SIDES WERE
TALKING OF A POSSIBLE START AGREEMENT BY THE END OF 1988 BUT EACH
HAD TOLD THE CHINESE PRIVATELY THIS WOULD BE ''NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
THE CHINESE TENDED TO SHARE THIS VIEW. IN THE US AN AGREEMENT
SIGNED BY AN OUTGOING PRESIDENT COULD BE HARD TO IMPLEMENT UNDER HIS
SUCCESSOR. IN THE SOVIET UNION SOME PEOPLE FELT TOO MANY
CONCESSIONS HAD BEEN MADE TO THE US ALREADY.
WITHIN THE SOVEIT UNION, THE LATEST REPORTS SUGGESTED THE FORTHCOMING 19TH PARTY CONFERENCE WOULD NOT EXERCISE ITS RIGHT TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, AND ONLY POLICY RATHER
THAN ORGANISATIONAL QUESTIONS WOULD BE DECIDED A SIGN OF HOW
DELICATE THE LATTER HAD BECOME WITHIN THE LEADERSHIP.
EAST-WEST AND GENERAL
8.
THE GENERAL TREND OF
EAST-WEST RELAXATION AND DIALOGUE SEEMED
SET TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THE VERY FACT OF SO MANY TALKS CONTINUING WAS A GOOD AUGURY FOR PEACE, EVEN IF THE CONCRETE SOLUTIONS ON REGIONAL PROBLEMS AND DISARMAMENT WHICH ALONE COULD
MAKE PEACE COMPLETE WERE STILL LOOKING VERY DIFFICULT. IT LOOKED AS
IF WE MIGHT SEE OUT THIS CENTURY WITHOUT MAJOR WAR AND IF SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE NEXT CENTURY AS WELL. ALL
REGIONS SHOULD TRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TO BUILD UP THEIR
ECONOMIC STRENGTH: EUROPE HAD ITS SINGLE MARKET PLAN FOR 1992,
WAS PURSUING ECONOMIC REFORM AND OTHERS NO DOUBT HAD THEIR OWN AIMS.
ANYONE WHO OPTED FOR REGIONAL WARS AND TENSIONS INSTEAD WOULD ONLY
HARM THEMSELVES.
JAPAN
CHINA
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