CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 051015Z FCO
TELNO 3704
OF 05084OZ OCTOBER 88
INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING
CONFIDENTIAL
HKB OU/S
Q6 OCT 1988
Y
COPY
MY ADDRESS TO LEGCO: EMIGRATION
OUR TELNO 3579 AND YRTELNO 2503:
83
Q DIST ?
(94
165663
MDHIAN 6403
-
1 I HAVE HAD ANOTHER GO AT THE SECTION ON EMIGRATION. IN NOW READS
AS FOLLOWS. GRATEFUL FOR ANY COMMENTS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE:
BEGINS
112. RECENT INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMIGRATING MUST BE SEEN AGAINST THIS HISTORICAL AND CULTURAL BACKGROUND. NEVERTHELESS THEY
ARE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. ADDED TO THE TRADITIONAL REASONS FOR
MOVEMENT IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE AND THE SEARCH FOR SOME SORT OF INSURANCE POLICY. IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE
ACCURATE STATISTICS TO ASSESS THE REAL NATURE OF THE PROBLEM. BUT THESE ARE HARD TO COME BY. WE DO NOT KEEP A RECORD OF THE REASONS
WHY PEOPLE LEAVE HONG KONG NOR OF HOW LONG THEY PROPOSE TO BE AWAY.
113. TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM, A GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE WAS SET UP EARLIER THIS YEAR TO GATHER INFORMATION ABOUT EMIGRATION. THEIR ESTIMATE, AND I STRESS THAT IT IS NO MORE THAN AN ESTIMATE, IS THAT 30,000 PEOPLE LEFT IN 1987, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ABOUT 3,000 FORMER EMIGRANTS RETURNED USING THEIR OLD HONG KONG TRAVEL DOCUMENTS. IN ADDITION AN UNKNOWN NUMBER PROBABLY RETURNED
USING THEIR NEWLY ACQUIRED PASSPORTS. THE TASK FORCE ESTIMATES THAT SOME 45,000 PEOPLE WILL EMIGRATE THIS YEAR. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW MANY FORMER EMIGRANTS WILL RETURN IN 1988. BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE NET OUTWARD FLOW WILL EXCEED 40,000.
·
114 THESE FIGURES NEED TO BE SEEN IN PERSPECTIVE. EMIGRATION FROM HONG KONG HAS ALWAYS FLUCTUATED A GREAT DEAL. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE MID-1970S, THE AVERAGE NET OUTFLOW WAS ABOUT 38,000 PEOPLE A YEAR. THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD BE SET AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND ALTHOUGH
THEY DO OF COURSE REPRESENT AN INCREASE COMPARED WITH THE PERIOD 1981 TO 1986, WHEN THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF THOSE EMIGRATING WAS ABOUT 20,000 PEOPLE A YEAR. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
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CONFIDENTIAL