2
Kong's economic performance hinges on many outside factors, such as
and som world demand, effects of the stock market crash on world finances eter However, for the short-term forecast of within nine months, our economic performance depends to a great extent on factors such as the stability of the linked exchange rate system, the degree of psychological optimism of investors in the commercial and industrial sectors as well as Hong Kong's industrial and trade relations with China. As far as we know, the 1987 momentum for economic growth continues into 1988. At least there should still be a substantial growth in the first half of this year. Secondly, worldwide economic recession has not yet set in as a result of the stock market crash and there is no obvious sign that our export market will reduce their demand for our products. The OECD's estimation of international economic growth quoted by the Government is usually
It is also too conservative, and its accuracy is doubtful. important to note that the purchase of plants and machineries by local manufacturers for enhancing productivity has been on the increase. They also have their goods contracted out for processing in China or even set up factories there to solve the problem of labour shortage and to increase the competitiveness of Hong Kong's products as well. Furthermore, the boom in the property market and the unabated power of consumption by the public all contribute to a
to. more sanguine economic performance as compared with the Government's forecast. I personally predict that the growth in real terms in 1988 will be around and I shall not be surprised if we could have a double-digit growth for the third consecutive year.
Sakex cent to 9 per cent
Sir, theoretically, a major function of the Government's forecast on economic growth is to serve as a guideline to industrial and commercial investors so as to help them make decision in investment. We all understand that both investing at the inappropriate time or not investing during the economic boom will mean losses. I do not know how many investors rely on the regular official publication: "The Quarterly Economic Report" as a guideline in their investment. Past Financial Secretaries have admitted that preparing economic forecast is a thankless task but I believe the