DRAFT SPEECH BY HON NGAI SHIU KIT, OBE—
20.4.1988 LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL -
Budget Debate 1988
MR. NGAI (in Cantonese
sir
First of all, I want to congratulate the Financial
Secretary for presenting to us a Budget with tax concessions, which brings good news to the majority of taxpayers.
At the same time, I
· also have to congratulate the Hong Kong people who, with their superb resilience and flexibility, have managed to push Hong Kong's economic achievement to another summit after the general economic The latest revised growth rate of our downturn in 1983 and 1984.
ber cent
gross domestic product (GDP) in 1987 is 13.6 in real terms which
三
has far exceeded the government's forecast made a year ago.
Two
In the wake of 2 consecutive years of double-digit growth in real terms in our economic performance and the stock market crash last October, the general forecast is that our economy will
The unavoidably be overshadowed by the climate of uncertainties. Financial Secretary believes that as the aftermath of the worldwide stock market crash has not yet emerged, Hong Kong's exports will be subject to the strong influence of factors beyond our control. Furthermore, paragraph 3.11 of the 1988 Economic Prospects" states that "according to the OECD Economic Outlook, total imports of all OECD countries combined are expected to grow by 4.0 percent in 1988. With a combination of the above factors, the Financial Secretary forecasts an increase of 6% in the total exports of our
ber cent domestic products, a growth of 12% in re-exports and a growth rate
per cent
The GDP growth rate is estimated
of 9% for the total exports goods.
per cent
#
to be
5.& per cent
Personally, I feel that the Financial Secretary may be too conservative in his short-term forecasts and the parameters used are
For the Medium Range Forecast which covers a open to question.
12
period of more than twelve months, it is beyond doubt that Hong
(III)