*k
SECTION II-THE FORECASTS
Appendix A-Contd.
9 The current MRF is summarized in the following three tables which indicate the forecast operating position, capital cash flow and the aggregation of the two in a consolidated cash flow statement.
10 It is emphasized that the forecasts are based on trends and, therefore, the actual results of any individual year may vary significantly from the trend assumption. This is particularly so in Hong Kong's volatile economic circumstances.
Operating Statement (before budget revenue measures)
Table 1
defines the relationship between expenditure and revenue of a regular (recurrent) nature, i.e. it excludes both capital expenditure and revenue which, by their nature, are a collection of one-off items.
Revised Estimate
Forecast
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
$ma
Smn
$mn
Smn
Smn
Recurrent expenditure
35,920
41,140
46,100
52,130
58,970
Capital expenditure of a regular nature
1,160
1,130
1,120
1,250
1,200
Total operating expenditure
37,080
42,270
47,220
53,380
60,170
Recurrent revenue before interest but before budget revenue
measures
48,370
52,970
59,340
65,640
72,720
Operating surplus before interest
11,290
10,700
12,120
12,260
12,550
Interest on balances
1,280
1,820
2,360
2,570
2,860
Operating surplus after interest but before budget revenue measures
12,570
12,520
14,480
14,830
15,410
Capital Expenditure and Financing Statement
-indicates the extent to which capital expenditure on major works is met by capital revenue.
Table 2
Revised Estimate
Forecast
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
Smn
$mn
Smn
Smn
$mn
Capital expenditure
General Revenue Account
790
290
310
350
470
Capital Works Reserve Fund
7,700
10,180
12,460
12,340
13,070
Other funds⭑
3,590
2,800
4,110
3,520
2,320
Bond issue repayment
1,000
Total capital expenditure
12,080
13,270
17,880
16,210
15,860
Capital revenue
General Revenue Account
910
760
770
790
780
Capital Works Reserve Fund (land sales and interest)
3,380
4,480
3,190
3,240
3,400
Other funds*
2,790
2,850
3,030
3,200
3,370
Total capital revenue
7,080
8,090
6,990
7,230
7,550
Capital financing (deficit)
(5,000)
(5,180) (10,890)
(8,980)
(8,310)
Development Loan Fund, Home Ownership Fund, Mass Transit Fund and Student Loan Fund.
7