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Gas is a more limited resource than oil and it is likely to be used
as a fuel on a large scale only for a relatively short period. It is
also potentially much too valuable as a raw material for industry in many
countries to be used indiscriminately for burning.
Biomass in the past, mostly firewood
--
is, of course, very
important in some developing countries where it is the only fuel for
some, and where it has contributed up to 50% of the energy supply. With
increasing population, the resulting deforestation in many countries is
now extremely serious. Reforestation remains a high priority to help
stem erosion and desertification and to yield some fuel. Energy forests
would have the long-term advantage of not disturbing the CO2 balance,
but I cannot see them as a significant source of energy in an
industrializing society.
Reference is often made to environmentally benign, renewable
sources like hydro, wind and solar. Of these, only hydro now makes a
significant contribution (20%) to the world's electricity production.
is not without environmental consequences.
It
Big hydro projects have major
local impacts and we have learnt through the years that they can also
entail risks for major catastrophes. One dam accident in 1979 in Morvi
in India caused an estimated 15,000 deaths.
A large hydro potential still exists in developing countries and it
should certainly be used whenever it is economical and practical. In
many cases it is far removed from consumption centres however, as in
Brazil, for instance. In most industrialized countries, little usable
hydro potential remains.