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Much more serious, however, is that the developing countries on the
average have a per capita electricity consumption of only one fourteenth
of the industrialized countries. The figures I just mentioned should be
compared with 390 kwh/person and year here in China, and 170 in India.
Expressed differently, one quarter of the world's population in
industrialized countries now uses three quarters of the electric energy
presently generated in the world.
Against this background, it is not surprising that developing
countries emphasize expansion of electricity production as a central
element of their economic development agendas. But the demand is
immense. If it were to be possible to provide the whole world population
of 6 billion people in 2000 with electricity at the level which is now
used in the industrialized world, we would need to increase the
production four times. This will not be possible, but it shows the
immense demand which exists and will continue to exist to meet
development needs.
The question is then, from which energy sources we can obtain this
additional electricity?
Oil has in the past been the dominant fuel, but the oil price
shocks in 1977 and 1979 have changed the outlook. Oil will undoubtedly
continue to be a major contributor to the world's energy balance, but its
new uses will be more and more restricted to those applications where
there are no good alternatives, especially in transport. Even with
today's low oil prices on the world market, it is likely to be too
expensive as a fuel for power stations.