CONFIDENTIAL # 3
4
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
the corresponding growth rates were 9% in the first
quarter, and 53% in the second quarter. These
growth rates were in stark contrast to a decline of
30% recorded for 1986 as a whole.
5.
(b) Retained imports of capital goods
Subject to certain statistical
limitations, retained imports of capital goods can
be used as an indicator of investment in plant and
machinery. The growth rate for such retained imports accelerated strongly to about 49% in real
terms in the third quarter, from 18% in the first
quarter and 32% in the second quarter (Table 2).
Taking the first nine months of 1987 together, the
growth rate in real terms was about 33%.
6.
of the retained imports of capital goods
in the first nine months of 1987, industrial
machinery was the largest component (accounting for
26% of the total value), followed by transport
equipment (18%), and electronic components and
parts for computers (7%). The breakdowns of
retained imports of capital goods are shown in
Table 3, while the growth rates in money terms for the various components of capital goods are shown in Table 4. Because of the difficulties in
compiling reliable price indices as the product breakdown becomes more disaggregated, growth rates
in real terms are not available for all the
components. Caution should be exercised in
interpreting the figures in Table 4 as the rates of increase in the prices of imported capital goods
have generally been high since the first quarter of
1986.
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