LOCSEN
SECRET
UK EYES A
b. Manpower. The manpower plot will need careful handling. It will be difficult to forecast accurately well in advance the manpower requirements associated with the proposed withdrawal options. Moreover, it may not be easy to match LEP and LEC levels to suit precisely the garrison's requirements: resolution of LEP and LEC issues will need careful planning and sensitive handling.
C. Defence Intelligence.
gence.
A number of intelligence
collection facities will remain until withdrawal.
It will be necessary to
retain JSIS until the last
possible moment, but it is envisaged that the Chinese language school will close by 1992.
WITHDRAWAL PLAN SUMMARY
69.
Army.
Withdrawal of battalions provides the framework for the military plan, which reflects the view that the Police Expansion Plan's forecast timescale may be optimistic. The proposed
'Sovereign Force' would reduce to 3 resident battalions in about 1992 once the RHKP have assumed responsibility for
half the border. It would reduce to 2 resident battalions when the Police have assumed all the garrison's IS, anti-II and special tasks for planning purposes not before 1994. The remaining 2 battalions would further reduce - subject to stable and secure conditions to a single UK battalion group as soon as possible during the period 1994-7. The rundown of Army supporting arms and services would be linked but not tied to battalion withdrawals.
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70. Navy. The RN's tasks will be assumed gradually by MARPOL. Although 2 PC are redundant now they should continue in their present role until Mar 88. There will be a requirement for 3 PC at least until MARPOL's second batch of 3 improved capability SC vessels have assumed responsibility for the RN's roles -
not before 1991. 3 RSRM could be withdrawn after MARPOL have established FPC operations during 1988. Conclusion of satisfactory contract arrangements could lead to reductions in the RN's small craft and ferry operations in 1987/88. Subject to the development of HKG facilities, RN Diving, recompression and EOD teams could be withdrawn by 1990.
33
UK EYES A
SECRET