LOCSEN
SECRET
UK EYES A
Critical Planning Dates. The planning and progression of
the Garrison withdrawal will be dictated by lead times necessary
to implement decisions, reflecting the relevant constraints,
their implications and penalties.
identified at Annex A.
Critical planning dates are
External Factors
There are a number of external facto
which need to be taken into account in the Withdrawal Pla
These include the following aspects, discussed in greater detail
at Annex B:
a.
b.
C.
The Future of the Brigade of Gurkhas.
Relationships with Nepal, Brunei and Korea.
The Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA) and other
regional interester-
BACKGROUND
THE THREAT
15. The most recent JIC assessment of the threat to Hong Kong was produced in 1985. For the purposes of this paper, an updated
threat assessment (4) has been developed specifically to address
the possible causes, nature, scale and targets of possible violence,
and to assess the capabilities and likely effectiveness of the
RHKP, in the period up to 1997. This new assessment, which takes
account of the most recent assessments issued by the Hong Kong
LIC and CBF Hong Kong, is summarized in the following paragraphs.
X
EXTERNAL THREAT
Xx
16.
The only foreign power traditionally deemed to pose an external
threat to Hong Kong is the PRC, which has the capability to take
Notes:
2 ж.
JIC (85)(N)38 dated 28 March 1985. D/DIS(CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.
COS S/172(1)
4
UK EYES A
SECRET LOCSEN
: