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of Locally Employed Personnel (LEPS)/Locally Employed Civilians (LECs) could be affected, possibly resulting in resignations, desertions, absenteeism or lack of cooperation.
21. Thus there are a variety of internal factors, as well as a
number of external influences, which could contribute to instability in Hong Kong and lead to spontaneous outbreaks of unrest and
violence, as have occurred in the past. Such factors, which are
very difficult to predict, are considered the most likely source
of civil unrest.
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22. The RHKP is currently considered by the HKG a highly
capable force, able to cope with any foreseeable public
order or internal security problem. To date, the police
supported on occasions by the garrison have been able to
control civil disturbances. Police capability is planned to expand
but this will depend upon the RHKP achieving its qualitative
and quantitative recruitment targets and police morale and
motivation not decreasing as 1997 approaches. In the final years, police intelligence covering potential sources of civil unrest is likely to diminish, a factor which would reduce early
warning of the development of an initial threat in Hong Kong at
a critical period. Positive warnings of civil unrest may not
therefore be available until shortly before any outbreak. In
all cases, advance assessment of the full impact on public
confidence will be difficult. Violence could range from small
scale peaceful demonstrations to widespread, violent and prolonged rioting with targets either limited to individual premises or involving larger areas - including commercial, industrial,
government, police, military or prestige targets.
23. The UK garrison is not expected to become involved unless civil disturbances become very serious. Nevertheless, any
reductions in the size of the military presence in Hong Kong will
influence local perceptions of HMG's commitment to Hong Kong and
the levels of support and effectiveness that the garrison can be expected to provide. Thus, garrison withdrawals will need to be programmed so that they minimise any destabilising potential. They should be flexible enough to avoid any periods
COS S/184 (2)
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