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internal situation in 1997.
However, it is the preservation of public confidence in the security and stability of Hong Kong up to and post 1997 which remains vitally important.
11. The PRC Dimension. Informally, the PRCG have emphasised that they expect the UK to maintain an effective military presence, which will not be withdrawn precipitately or in a manner which would adversely affect preservation of the Territory's stability either prior to 1997 or thereafter.
12. Defence Cost Agreement (DCA) Renegotiation.
The present
DCA, under which the HKG pays 75% of the total cost of the garrison, expires in March 1988; it is to be renegotiated between April and October 1987.
13.
Critical Planning Dates. The planning and progression of the Garrison withdrawal will be dictated by lead times necessary to implement decisions, reflecting the relevant constraints, their implications and penalties. Critical planning dates are
identified at Annex A.
BACKGROUND
THE THREAT
14. The most recent JIC assessment of the threat to Hong Kong (1) was produced in 1985. For the purposes of this paper, an updated threat assessment (2) has been developed specifically to address the possible causes, nature, scale and targets of possible violence, and to assess the capabilities and likely effectiveness of the RHKP, in the period up to 1997. This new assessment, which takes account of the most recent assessments issued by the Hong Kong LIC and CBF Hong Kong, is summarized in the following paragraphs.
Notes:
1.
2.
JIC (85) (N)38 dated 28 March 1985. D/DIS(CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.
COS S/184 (2)
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EXTERNAL THREAT